A new poll indicates that Donald Trump's chances of becoming elected in 2024 have been much improved.
Some analysts have predicted that Trump would get 264 Electoral College votes, giving him a one in two probability of winning the election in November. Last week, predictions indicated that he would get 257 Electoral College votes, giving him a 2 in 5 chance of winning the election. But just one prediction out of many might be wrong. Harris is now leading Trump in another survey. The second prediction now puts her chances of winning the election at 1/2 and her Electoral College vote total at 274—a decrease from last week's prediction of 281—at this time.
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Spin the bottle around and about, left and right. Where it lands nobody really knows. Can't trust polls but people seem to need them. A number of key battleground states' polls have also turned in favor of Trump, including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Between September 29 and 30, InsiderAdvantage surveyed 800 registered voters across four states: Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina. In North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, Trump had a one-point edge over Harris, while in Georgia, the two were neck and neck at 48 percent. In particular, North Carolina had a Trump lead of 50% to 49% while Arizona and Nevada were states where Trump trailed Harris by 49% to 48%. The margin of error for the polls was between three and three and a half points.
Watch this related video: WTKR Norfolk, VA predicts that the Trump-Harris presidential election will be the most costly in U.S. history.
Between September 25 and 29, a poll of 942 registered voters in Georgia and 953 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted by Quinnipiac University. The margin of error for this sample was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. In Georgia, Trump had a six-point edge with half of the vote, while Harris received 44% and other contenders received 3%. Trump had 49% of the vote, Harris 47%, and 2% of the vote went to other candidates in North Carolina's closer contest.
At the same time, the Washington Post surveyed 1,001 North Carolina likely voters and found that Trump had 50% support to Harris's 48%. However, the margin of error was 3.5 points.
Emerson College Surveys Trump was also marginally up in North Carolina (3.3 points) and Arizona (3.2 points), according to the polls, albeit both states were inside the margins of error. In North Carolina, Trump held a lead of 49% to 48%, while in Arizona, he had 50% to Harris's 47%. The two surveys were place on September 27th and 28th.
The good news for Harris is that she is now three points ahead of Trump in Michigan, a crucial battleground state, according to a Napolitan News survey. Harris received 50% of the vote, while Trump received 47%. The margin of error for this survey, which was carried out with 789 potential voters from September 24-27, was 3.5 points.
If she wants to win, Harris will need 44 electoral votes from the swing states this year, while Trump would need 51. Harris would be able to ensure victory if she were to win the 2nd district of Nebraska, as well as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
According to FiveThirtyEight's prediction, she will be victorious in four states: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The poll trackers at FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver have Harris ahead in each of the four states by a margin of one to three points. With the exception of North Carolina and Nevada, where Harris' margin has grown, FiveThirtyEight's tracker reveals that all swing states have seen a narrowing of Harris' lead since September.
In the meanwhile, Trump has a lead of one to two points in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, according to both trackers.
Silver claims that the Electoral College is still undecided, even though Harris is leading in four swing states and the national popular vote.
The popular vote is leaning toward Kamala Harris at a 3:1 margin as of Thursday, according to our estimate, but the Electoral College is still very close. "The model believes there's a 20 percent probability that Harris wins the popular but loses the Electoral College, but only a 0.3 percent chance that Donald Trump does the same thing," he wrote in last week's newsletter.
With 282 electoral votes to Trump's 256, Harris is projected to win the popular vote and the Electoral College, according to FiveThirtyEight's model.
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